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Bearish bets were stable in Asian Forex as the virus's predicament continued: Reuters polls -

August 12, 2021

By Harish Sridharan

(Reuters) – The Thai baht was the worst, but the dollar’s appreciation also weighed as investors remained bearish against most Asian currencies and the economy across the region continued to suffer from delta variants.

According to a survey of 11 respondents, the yuan, Singapore dollar and Indian rupee rose slightly compared to two weeks ago, but most were maintained in the Philippine peso and the Indonesian rupiah.

Sentiment against the Taiwan dollar has reversed as investors became bullish on the currency for the first time since early July as strong export data showed improved growth prospects.

The surge in cases of coronavirus delta variants has rattled parts of Asia, Thailand and South Korea have recorded record daily infections, and stagnation of vaccination programs further burdens their health infrastructure. I’m wearing it.

Local currencies have also been at a disadvantage as the dollar remained at its four-month peak after the recent strong employment data execution fueled expectations for previous monetary tightening in the United States.

The bearish bet on the baht was the highest since August 2015, after the Bank of Thailand downgraded growth forecasts for countries that depend on trade and tourism three times this year.

The baht has fallen by more than 11%, the poorest performing currency in the region so far this year, but Thai stocks have fallen almost 3.5% since the end of June.

“Domestic, the baht is at risk of another downgrade in Thailand’s outlook … unless the pandemic is curtailed by the beginning of the fourth quarter, it cannot be ruled out,” a DBS analyst said. Stated.

“Externally, the baht is unaffected by the hawkish inclination of the Federal Reserve Board,” they added.

While recent economic data have shown slowing economic growth, investors have slightly raised the yuan’s short position as China’s latest COVID-19 outbreak has clouded the outlook.

Originally resilient compared to its peers in the past few weeks, a recent outbreak in China (now in the fourth week) could curtail tourism and activity in the services sector.

Meanwhile, the Taiwan dollar was outlier as strong export data showed a brighter economic outlook. Driven by manufacturers in a hurry to address the global chip shortage, exports increased for the 13th consecutive month, hitting a record high in July.

Reuters survey shows analysts’ current market positions in nine emerging market currencies in Asia: Chinese yuan, Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit, Thai baht. Focuses on what we believe. ..

Polls use net long or short position estimates on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3.

A plus 3 score indicates that the market is a very long US dollar. This number includes positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).

The results of the ASIAPOSN survey are shown below (US dollar vs. position in each currency).

Date USD / C USD / K USD / S USD / I USD / T USD / I USD / M USD / P USD / TH


12/08 0.32 0.69 0.77 0.20 -0.09 0.37 1.39 1.17 1.75

29/07 0.27 0.78 0.71 0.27 0.36 0.29 1.4 1.21 1.49

15/07 -0.15 0.27 0.53 0.23 0.13 0.68 1.06 1.06 1.56

01/07 -0.29 -0.29 0.02 0.36 -0.19 0.5 0.49 -0.04 0.85

17/06 -0.63 -0.36 -0.49 -0.50 -0.58 -0.21 -0.05 -0.31 0.20

03/06 -1.34 -0.51 -0.55 -0.40 -0.44 -0.71 0.32 -0.66 0.37

20/05 -0.33 0.43 0.37 -0.06 0.33 -0.03 0.26 -0.22 0.81

06/05 -0.52 -0.39 -0.58 0.31 -0.59 0.86 -0.04 -0.35 0.50

22/04 -0.17 -0.23 -0.44 0.56 -0.38 0.75 -0.03 -0.37 0.58

08/04 0.72 0.48 0.30 0.59 0.77 0.20 0.46 0.36 0.91

25/03 0.30 0.65 0.46 0.45 0.50 0.05 0.54 0.11 0.54

(Report by Harish Sridharan in Bangalore; edited by Ana Nicolaci da Costa)

Bearish bets were stable in Asian Forex as the virus’s predicament continued: Reuters polls

Source link Bearish bets were stable in Asian Forex as the virus’s predicament continued: Reuters polls